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I’m an independent economist, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’
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The Global Economy

Australia may be an island continent, but it is no more immune to global economic influences than are other countries which share physical borders with their nearest neighbours. Australia is very much exposed to global swings in commodity prices, and to fluctuations in major advanced economies and (increasingly) to business cycles in key emerging economies such as China. Australia’s financial markets are increasingly integrated with the their global counterparts. And Australian economic policy-makers cannot ignore changes in monetary, fiscal and other economic policy settings in the world’s major economies. Hence, an awareness of trends in the global economy is an essential element of understanding Australian economic conditions.

Key issues for the global and Australian economies in 2017

The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 7th February 2017

Presentation to the International CEO Forum – Melbourne, 7th February 2017

Ten Things to Watch in 2017

Publications, The Global Economy | 24th January 2017

Ten things that could move global or Australian financial markets in 2017 – originally written for Jamieson Coote Bonds (of whose advisory board I’m a member), and also published on Livewire.

Market reaction to Donald Trump’s apparent victory in US Presidential election

The Global Economy | 9th November 2016

Saul Eslake | The Conversation | 9th November 2016 An assessment published on The Conversation, 9th November 2016. Donald Trump has emerged as the winner in the US Presidential election, but even before the result was clear the prospect came as a profound shock to financial markets. As I wrote last month, financial markets had […]

The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump Presentation

The Global Economy | 2nd November 2016

Presentation to a ‘Lighthouse Leadership Series’ luncheon hosted by the Western Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Perth, WA, on 2nd November 2016. The title is an intentional allusion to a series of articles by John Maynard Keynes which appeared in the London Evening Standard in July 1925, discussing the consequences of Churchill’s decision […]

The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump Article

Publications, The Global Economy | 26th October 2016

The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump, The Conversation, 26th October 2016

The World Today – a Global Macro-economic Perspective

The Global Economy | 15th September 2016

Presentation To HL Morrison & Co Infrastructure Conference 2016, Millbrook Resort, Queenstown, New Zealand – 15th September 2016

The New World of Economic Disruptors – from Brexit to Trump

The Global Economy | 16th August 2016

Presentation to First Samuel Limited’s annual Client Forum, Melbourne, 16th August 2016

Is the World Economy Facing ‘Secular Stagnation’?

The Global Economy | 16th June 2014

Paper presented to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists (ICCBE), Oslo, Norway, 16th June 2014


Upcoming Events and Appearances


What Others Say

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known and economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“An outstanding presentation that was lucid, logical and blended hard facts with humour. And Saul comfortably communicated to meet the wide range of ages, occupations and knowledge of our guests”
Anthony Starkins, Executive Director, First Samuel Ltd, August 2016



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