SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, speaker, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy


Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

The RBA is following a slightly different path from its peers

Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 11th January 2024

The Reserve Bank of Australia has come in for criticism for some quarters for its most recent rate hike (on 7th November). Although most RBA-watchers, me included, think that there won’t be any more rate hikes next year, the Minutes of the 5th December RBA Board meeting show that another hike was a live option […]


The prospects for RBA’s cash rate reductions in the second half of 2024

News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 2nd January 2024

Saul Eslake talks to Sky News’ Kenny Heatley on 2nd January 2024 about the prospects for RBA’s cash rate reductions in the second half of 2024.


Does Australia’s productivity growth slowdown represent an inflation risk?

The Australian Economy | 14th December 2023

One of the many interesting things you can do with the information provided in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Labour Account, the most recent of which (for the September quarter) was published last Friday, is derive what I call ‘dollar-based’ estimates of labour productivity – not only for the economy as a whole, but for […]


The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO)

Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 13th December 2023

Interview with Melbourne Radio station 3AW’s Heidi Murphy about the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) presented by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Wednesday 13th December Economist provides rundown on the budget update and the ‘surprising’ passport increase (3aw.com.au)


September quarter national accounts and their implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy

Economic Policies, Economic Video, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 6th December 2023

Saul spoke with Ausbiz ‘s Danielle Ecuyer about today’s September quarter national accounts and their implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy settings 


Danielle Wood must help undo GST deal

News, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 30th November 2023

The Australian Financial Review has published an op-ed from me on the changes to the arrangements for distributing the revenue from the GST among the states and territories imposed by the Morrison Government in 2018 (with the support of the then Labor Opposition) – something which I regard as one of the worst public policy […]


Saul Eslake with 4BC’s Bill McDonald: October inflation figures

News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 29th November 2023

Saul spoke with Brisbane Radio 4BC’s Bill McDonald about today’s October inflation figures and what they mean for interest rates.


Good news and not-so-good news from the latest inflation data

The Australian Economy | 29th November 2023

There’s good news and not-so-good news in the monthly CPI Indicator for October released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics this (Wednesday) morning. The good news is that consumer prices (or at least, the prices of the roughly two-thirds of the items in the more comprehensive quarterly CPI that are included in this monthly measure) […]


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Saul Eslake online presentation


“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


The next four years will be difficult for Tasmania
News, Tasmania
27th March 2024


Some initial reflections on the outcome of the 2024 Tasmanian State election
Australian Society and Politics, Tasmania
24th March 2024


Tasmania’s fiscal position
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, Tasmania
24th March 2024


Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy
13th March 2024


Tasmania – lost opportunities
Tasmania
12th March 2024


The Tasmanian Economy
Tasmania
29th February 2024


The worst public policy decision of the 21st Century
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
20th February 2024


Is ‘price gouging’ a major contributor to inflation?
Recent Media Interview
19th February 2024


The massive $50bn GST revenue distribution blow out (with Andy Park)
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
14th February 2024


The massive $50bn GST revenue distribution blow out (with Gary Adshead)
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
14th February 2024


Tasmania’s senior secondary education reform
Recent Media Interview, Tasmania
13th February 2024


Distribution of GST Revenue: the Worst Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century to date.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
4th February 2024


Insights on Asian Elections 2024 mentioned in The Economist
Asian Economies
30th January 2024


Alternatives to interest rates
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
29th January 2024


Reflections on ‘Australia Day’
Australian Society and Politics
26th January 2024


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TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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