The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
“Hiding in Plain Sight” – $180 billion of spending over four years.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, Topics | 11th November 2024The Australian Financial Review‘s Economics correspondent Michael Read has an article about the increasing propensity of Federal Governments of both political persuasions to obscure on-going spending in a category officially termed ‘investments in financial assets for policy purposes’, which in the Federal Budget Papers is the difference between the ‘headline’ budget balance – which despite […]
Challenges and Opportunities for Australian Agriculture
Commodities, The Australian Economy | 1st October 2024Australia’s, and Queensland’s, agriculture sector has a bright future – if it can successfully confront and overcome a series of challenges, some of which are common to farmers everywhere, some of which are unique to Australia or Queensland. Saul’s presentation to AgForce Queensland’s annual Agriculture Industry Conference at the Brisbane Royal International Conention Centre on […]
‘Super for Housing’ – a Thoroughly Bad Idea
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy, Topics | 19th September 2024Saul’s analysis of the Liberal-National Coalition’s proposal to allow people to withdraw up to 40% of their superannnuation savings (up to a maximum of $100,000) in order to purchase a first home (subject to a requirement that the amount withdrawn be re-invested in superannuation when that home is sold), commissioned by the Super Members’ Council, published […]
What’s happening in the economy – nationally and in Tasmania
Economic Policies, Tasmania, The Australian Economy | 13th September 2024Saul’s presentation to the Governance Institute of Australia’s Tasmanian Governance Forum on 13th September 2024, providing some perspectives on recent developments in the Australian economy and the outlook for interest rates – and also the Tasmanian economy, the Independent Review of Tasmania’s State Finances and the 2024-25 Budget presented the day before.
All about inflation
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2024Saul Eslake: Australia’s recent inflation experience, what caused it, and how the Government and the Reserve Bank are responding to it
Inflation and the prospects for cuts in Australian interest rates
News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 30th August 2024Saul Eslake talks to Turkish TV station TRT World about Australia’s experience in combatting inflation and the prospects for cuts in Australian interest rates – not this year.
‘Price-gouging’ and ‘profiteering’ haven’t been major contributors to Australian inflation
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 26th August 2024Saul Eslake: Notwithstanding assertions from both the left and right of the Australian political spectrum, ‘price-gouging’ and ‘profiteering’ have not been significant contributors to the high inflation which Australia has experienced over the past three years.
A ‘security blanket’ for Australian manufacturing
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Security, The Australian Economy | 26th August 2024Saul Eslake: The Albanese Government’s signature ‘Future Made in Australia’ has a good part, which is about the transition to net zero, and a not-so-good part, which reeks of ‘manufacturing fetishism’ and an obsession with ‘security’ at the expense of other objectives.