SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, speaker, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

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The Australian Economy

Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

Old wine in new bottles: more ‘rent-seeking’ from South Australian manufacturing interests

Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 17^th September 2021

There’s a new lobby group pleading for preferential treatment for manufacturing in the name of ensuring ‘sovereignty’, a word of which the present Federal Government is especially fond. But it boils down to the same old rent-seeking that has been a feature of Australian manufacturing policy for most of the past 120 years. (Full text […]

Housing Grants: more harm than good

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 15^th September 2021

Saul talks to Tasmania Talks‘ Mike O’loughlin on 14th September, 2021 about housing affordability crisis

Housing affordability crisis with Brooke Corte

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 14^th September 2021

Saul talks to 2GB‘s Money News‘ Brooke Corte about housing affordabilty crisis

This is a recession – we’re just not calling it one

Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 9^th September 2021

Op-ed published in the Australian Financial Review of 9th August 2021 – arguing (1) that we are in a recession now, irrespective of whether we have two consecutive quarterly contractions in real GDP, and (2) that although it shares some of the ‘responsibility’ for this second recession, the federal government’s fiscal policy response to it […]

Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’

Publications, The Australian Economy | 31^st August 2021

Jessica Irvine, senior economics columnist with the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers, discusses Saul’s views on the meaning of the term ‘recession’ and whether Australia is once again in one now

Is Australia having a Second Recession?

Australian Society and Politics, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16^th August 2021

A recession is commonly defined as two or more quarters of negative growth in real GDP. But that’s a silly rule – and it isn’t used in the US, where the body which officially delineates recessions last month said that the 2020 recession lasted just two months. If the bushfires of late 2019 and early […]

Reflections on the 2021 Intergenerational Report

Economic Policies, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 15^th August 2021

The 2021 IGR, released some six weeks ago, suggests that Australia will be running budget deficits for the next 40 years. But that’s only because of the quite arbitrary assumption that tax collections will remain ‘capped’ at 23.9% of GDP, forever more. There’s no reason why that should be the case.

The Economics of International Mobility

Australian Society and Politics, The Arts, The Australian Economy | 12^th August 2021

Virtual presentation to the Australian Performing Arts Market ‘Gathering’ on 12th August 2021, looking at trends in (and consequences) of international mobility of goods and services, capital and people, both pre- and post-Covid, and the consequences of Covid for the performing arts.

PREMIUM ACCESS

Weekly Chart Pack and Online Event

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Latest Chart Pack

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT 2021-09-18

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT 2021-09-11

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT 2021-09-04

Online Presentation

Webinar: Fiscal Policy and Public Debt
29^th SEP | 5:00 PM

WEEKLY CHART PACK

Each weekend since mid-April 2020 I’ve been preparing, updating and distributing a weekly Coronavirus Impact Chart Pack to people in Australia and overseas. Running to over 100 pages it includes:

charts tracking the spread of Covid-19, globally and in Australia, and government responses to it;
the impact on the global economy and major individual economies such as China, Japan, other Asian economies, the US and Europe;
financial and commodities markets;
multiple aspects of the Australian economy, including state-level comparisons, and the policy responses of the Australian and state or territory governments, and the Reserve Bank of Australia; and
similar, though smaller coverage of the New Zealand economy.

The Coronavirus Impact Chart Pack will be updated every Saturday afternoon, Australian time, for as long as it remains topical. It will be accessible to subscribers of the Premium Access package.

If and when Covid-19 ceases to be front and centre of attention (as it is now) – whenever that might be – I will continue to prepare a Weekly Chart Pack, but with a focus on whatever replaces the virus as the issue du jour.

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
18^th September 2021

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT CHART PACK 2021-09-18

"I see a lot of chart packs in my line of work, but yours is about the best I have seen. It is amazingly comprehensive, covering far more of the world than any individual is entitled to cover, the charts are clear and easy to understand and they drill down into each topic in a very satisfying way. So well done, Saul."

Alan Kohler, ABC finance presenter, founder of Eureka Report

"A timely and comprehensive summary from one of Australia's best economists."

Adam Creighton, Economics Editor for The Australian

“I continue to find you thinking invaluable - this year to my ritual weekend reading of the economist I have happily added ‘Saul’s latest’.”

Rufus Black, former Managing Partner of McKinsey’s, and currently Vice-Chancellor of the University of Tasmania

“Your chart pack is amazing - and thanks for offering to add me to the mailing list, that would be great to be included. Everything you could want to know is there - and the way the data are organised and presented to tell the stories makes it so easy to follow.”

Prof Jeff Borland, Truby Williams Professor of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Website

“An excellent summary. Although I take a great interest in what’s happening with COVID-19 day by day In Australia and Internationally, I always find your weekly summary a very interesting review of the past week.”

retired former Chief Executive Officer of a District Hospital Service in New South Wales

WEEKLY CHART PACK

EVENTS

“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast

"I see a lot of chart packs in my line of work, but yours is about the best I have seen. It is amazingly comprehensive, covering far more of the world than any individual is entitled to cover, the charts are clear and easy to understand and they drill down into each topic in a very satisfying way.
So well done, Saul."

Alan Kohler, ABC finance presenter, founder of Eureka Report

“I continue to find you thinking invaluable - this year to my ritual weekend reading of the economist I have happily added ‘Saul’s latest’.”

Rufus Black, former Managing Partner of McKinsey’s, and currently Vice-Chancellor of the University of Tasmania

“Your chart pack is amazing - and thanks for offering to add me to the mailing list, that would be great to be included. Everything you could want to know is there - and the way the data are organised and presented to tell the stories makes it so easy to follow.”

Prof Jeff Borland, Truby Williams Professor of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Website

“An excellent summary. Although I take a great interest in what’s happening with COVID-19 day by day In Australia and Internationally, I always find your weekly summary a very interesting review of the past week.”

retired former Chief Executive Officer of a District Hospital Service in New South Wales

“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia

“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies

online events @ saul-eslake.com

Quantitative Easing & Modern Monetary Policy

Some commentators seem to think that ‘QE’ is simply a variant of, or a step along the road to, something called ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ or ‘MMT’. It isn’t: and so in the second part of this series Saul explains what MMT is (and isn’t).

SEP

29^th

Webinar: Fiscal Policy and Public Debt

5:00 PM Australian Eastern Standard Time
3:00 PM Hong Kong | 2:00 PM Jakarta | 9:00 AM Central European | 8:00 AM London
Cost: $49.99 ~ Includes access to Saul's presentation slides and video

If you’ve taken out a Premium Access subscription, you don’t need to do anything more: you’re guaranteed access and you will receive your webinar access link 48 hours prior to the event. If you’ve taken a basic subscription, or don’t have one at all, you’ll need to register to attend, which you can do here or, you could take out a Premium Access subscription, which you can do here.

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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations

Coronavirus Impact Chart Pack 2021-09-18

Chart Pack | 18^th September 2021

Webinar: Fiscal Policy and Public Debt
Economic Policies, Events | 25^th August 2021

Old wine in new bottles: more ‘rent-seeking’ from South Australian manufacturing interests
Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 17^th September 2021

The ‘corrupt bargain’ underpinning WA’s budget surpluses
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Taxation | 16^th September 2021

Housing Grants: more harm than good
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 15^th September 2021

Housing affordability crisis with Brooke Corte
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 14^th September 2021

This is a recession – we’re just not calling it one
Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 9^th September 2021

Papua New Guinea in the Post-Covid World Economy
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 7^th September 2021

Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’
Publications, The Australian Economy | 31^st August 2021

Submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Tax and Revenue inquiry into Housing Affordability and Supply in Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing | 31^st August 2021

Tasmania’s 2021-22 State Budget
Economic Policies, Tasmania | 26^th August 2021

Excerpt: Modern Monetary Theory
Economic Policies, Economics and Economists, QE & MMT, The Global Economy | 25^th August 2021

Video & Presentation Slides: Modern Monetary Theory
Economic Policies, Economics and Economists, The Global Economy | 25^th August 2021

Rebuilding the performing arts: an economist weighs in
Publications, The Arts | 21^st August 2021

Is Australia having a Second Recession?
Australian Society and Politics, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16^th August 2021

Reflections on the 2021 Intergenerational Report
Economic Policies, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 15^th August 2021

The Economics of International Mobility
Australian Society and Politics, The Arts, The Australian Economy | 12^th August 2021

The effective rate of unemployment
Labour Market, The Australian Economy | 11^th August 2021

Are skyrocketing house prices a wellness issue?
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview | 7^th August 2021

Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax (again)
Australian Society and Politics, Housing, News, Taxation | 4^th August 2021

VIDEO

Recent Presentations

The Impact of Covid-19 series

These videos are available to audience of Saul’s presentations as soon as they are uploaded and will be available to public one month after the presentation date.

TOPICS

Articles, Talks and Presentations

The Arts

Asian Economies

The Australian Economy

Australian Society and Politics

Commodities

Economic Policies

Economics and Economists

Education

The Global Economy

Globalization

Housing

Labour Market

Productivity

Security

Tasmania

Taxation

PUBLICATIONS

Here you can find articles or essays which I have written and which have been published elsewhere

Old wine in new bottles: more ‘rent-seeking’ from South Australian manufacturing interests
Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 17^th September 2021

This is a recession – we’re just not calling it one
Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 9^th September 2021

Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’
Publications, The Australian Economy | 31^st August 2021

Rebuilding the performing arts: an economist weighs in
Publications, The Arts | 21^st August 2021

Is Australia having a Second Recession?
Australian Society and Politics, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16^th August 2021

NEWS

TV, Radio & Print Media

Housing Grants: more harm than good
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 15^th September 2021

Housing affordability crisis with Brooke Corte
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 14^th September 2021

Is Australia having a Second Recession?
Australian Society and Politics, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16^th August 2021

Are skyrocketing house prices a wellness issue?
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview | 7^th August 2021

Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax (again)
Australian Society and Politics, Housing, News, Taxation | 4^th August 2021

TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

Economist

The Australian Economy

Old wine in new bottles: more ‘rent-seeking’ from South Australian manufacturing interests

Housing Grants: more harm than good

Housing affordability crisis with Brooke Corte

This is a recession – we’re just not calling it one

Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’

Is Australia having a Second Recession?

Reflections on the 2021 Intergenerational Report

The Economics of International Mobility

PREMIUM ACCESS

Weekly Chart Pack and Online Event

Latest Chart Pack

Online Presentation

WEEKLY CHART PACK

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC18th September 2021

"A timely and comprehensive summary from one of Australia's best economists."

“I continue to find you thinking invaluable - this year to my ritual weekend reading of the economist I have happily added ‘Saul’s latest’.”

“Your chart pack is amazing - and thanks for offering to add me to the mailing list, that would be great to be included. Everything you could want to know is there - and the way the data are organised and presented to tell the stories makes it so easy to follow.”

“An excellent summary. Although I take a great interest in what’s happening with COVID-19 day by day In Australia and Internationally, I always find your weekly summary a very interesting review of the past week.”

EVENTS

“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

“I continue to find you thinking invaluable - this year to my ritual weekend reading of the economist I have happily added ‘Saul’s latest’.”

“Your chart pack is amazing - and thanks for offering to add me to the mailing list, that would be great to be included. Everything you could want to know is there - and the way the data are organised and presented to tell the stories makes it so easy to follow.”

“An excellent summary. Although I take a great interest in what’s happening with COVID-19 day by day In Australia and Internationally, I always find your weekly summary a very interesting review of the past week.”

“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

online events @ saul-eslake.com

Quantitative Easing & Modern Monetary Policy

Webinar: Fiscal Policy and Public Debt

WHAT'S NEW

Coronavirus Impact Chart Pack 2021-09-18

VIDEO

The Impact of Covid-19 series

TOPICS

PUBLICATIONS

NEWS

TESTIMONIALS

LINKS

Search

Corinna Economic Advisory Pty Ltd

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
18^th September 2021