The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
The Australian economy’s recovery from the corona-recession, and implications for interest ratesEconomic Policies, The Australian Economy | 8th April 2021
Saul talks to the Eureka Report’s Alan Kohler about Australia’s better-than-expected recovery from the “corona-recession”, which in turn reflects Australia’s relatively good performance in keeping the virus ‘at bay’ and the larger-than-average volume of fiscal support provided by the Australian Government. He explains how the closure of Australia’s borders to migrants (as well as tourists […]
Rebound in growth could force RBA’s hand on ratesEconomic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 8th April 2021
Feature article published in the Australian Financial Review on 7th April, looking at Australia’s emergence from the recession induced by Covid-19, and the implications for the future course of fiscal and monetary policy
Conversation with the ArchbishopAustralian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Other Video, Taxation, The Australian Economy, Video | 27th March 2021
Saul participated in a ‘Conversation with the Archbishop’, hosted by the Anglican Archbishop of Melbourne, Dr Philip Freier, in Melbourne’s Federation Square along with CEO of Anglicare Kasy Chambers, on Tuesday 23rd March 2021, about Australia’s response to Covid-19 and how the ‘new normal’ could be different from the old one.
The west is having its iron ore cake – and eating it tooEconomic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 24th March 2021
Op-ed piece in the Australian Financial Review on 24th March 2021 about “deal” imposed on states and territories by the Federal Government two years ago which is now producing the perverse result that the Federal Government will have to run an even bigger budget deficit so as to allow Western Australia – the only government […]
Opportunities and Challenges for Regional AustraliaThe Australian Economy | 17th March 2021
Presentation to the Regional Australia Institute’s “Rising Regions” National Summit, Canberra, 17th March 2021
A Pre-Election Western Australia Chart PackAustralian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 10th March 2021
A set of charts exploring the unusual structure of Western Australia’s economy; and how it became Australia’s richest state as a result of the China-fuelled ‘resources boom’ of 2005-2015, before falling into recession after the end of the ‘investment phase’ of that boom, and how having squandered a good deal of the revenue bonanza thrown […]
The Australian economy and its recovery from the Covid recessionThe Australian Economy | 28th January 2021
Saul talks to The Eureka Report’s (and the ABC’s) Alan Kohler about the Australian economy and its recovery from the Covid recession