Asian Economies
Asia accounts for 52% of the world’s population and (as of 2016) 39% of the world’s GDP. By the end of the decade Asia will account for 42% of the world’s GDP. Asia takes almost three-quarters of Australia’s exports of goods and services and supplies more than half of Australia’s imports. You simply can’t understand Australia’s long-term economic prospects without a good understanding of what’s happening in the major Asian economies.
Global turmoil, tariffs and impacts on the Australian economy
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy, Topics | 30th April 2025Saul Eslake’s presentation to a webinar hosted by the Freight & Trade Alliance (Australia’s leading representative body for the international supply chain sector bringing together importers, exporters, customs brokers, freight forwarders, logistics service providers and industry groups) on 29th April 2025.
Have we passed ‘peak China’? (and might a big fall in the RMB be on the horizon?)
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 11th July 2024Saul Eslake: China is ceasing to be a major locomotive for global economic growth, thanks to a combination of inexorable demographic factors and policy inertia. Additionally, a large fall in its currency could be on the horizon.
‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 22nd June 2024Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.
Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics | 16th April 2024China has been running a ‘crawling peg’ exchange rate regime, similar to the one Australia had between January 1976 and December 1983, since 2015. Strictly speaking, a quasi-fixed FX regime like this requires some kind of relationship between a country’s domestic money supply and its FX reserves – although that isn’t really ‘binding’ if the […]
Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 4th April 2024Is #China heading for some kind of financial or #currency crisis? In the short term, no. But over the medium- to longer-term, the possibility of a sharp fall in the value of the #renminbi against other currencies, accompanied by large falls in the values of other Chinese assets, can’t be ruled out. China hasn’t been […]
Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 13th March 2024Talk to a gathering of parliamentarians, business leaders and others from the UK and Australia, in Melbourne, on Wednesday 13th March 2024 PRODUCTIVITY, TAX REFORM & ‘PEAK CHINA’ TALK TO COOK SOCIETY, 13th MARCH 2024 by Saul Eslake Principal, Corinna Economic Advisory Download PDF version Productivity Productivity – what we get by way of […]
Insights on Asian Elections 2024 mentioned in The Economist
Asian Economies | 30th January 2024Saul Eslake: A couple of weeks ago I gave a presentation to colleagues in ICCBE previewing this year’s Asian elections (Taiwan, now done, Indonesia in just over two weeks, and India in April-May). I was delighted when The Economist’s Adam Roberts picked up some of my comments on India and posted them in his Sunday’s newsletter on 28th January 2024
Have we passed ‘peak China’?
Asian Economies | 23rd January 2024Saul Eslake’s presentation to colleagues in Independent Economics, which argues that China’s sluggish recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic isn’t just a ‘cylical’ thing, but rather reflects longer-term factors (as well as policy choices) which are likely to result in China’s economy growing by well under 5% per annum in the years ahead, and possibly under […]