The Global Economy
Australia may be an island continent, but it is no more immune to global economic influences than are other countries which share physical borders with their nearest neighbours. Australia is very much exposed to global swings in commodity prices, and to fluctuations in major advanced economies and (increasingly) to business cycles in key emerging economies such as China. Australia’s financial markets are increasingly integrated with the their global counterparts. And Australian economic policy-makers cannot ignore changes in monetary, fiscal and other economic policy settings in the world’s major economies. Hence, an awareness of trends in the global economy is an essential element of understanding Australian economic conditions.
The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump
Economic Policies, The Global Economy | 29th January 2025A presentation to my colleagues in Independent Economics (Home – Independent Economics) about the likely economic consequences (including for inflation and economic growth) of Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and trade, immigration and deportations, taxes and the US budget, and the independence of the US’ central bank, the Federal Reserve.
Elections and economies – the US and Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 23rd November 2024Donald Trump’s clear (although not overhelming) victory in November’s US Presidential election, combined with the Republicans’ capture of both Houses of the US Congress, puts him in a strong position to implement his agenda. The combination of swingeing increases in tariffs, the deportation of between 1.3 and 8 million migrant workers, a futher increase in […]
Have we passed ‘peak China’? (and might a big fall in the RMB be on the horizon?)
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 11th July 2024Saul Eslake: China is ceasing to be a major locomotive for global economic growth, thanks to a combination of inexorable demographic factors and policy inertia. Additionally, a large fall in its currency could be on the horizon.
‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 22nd June 2024Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.
Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics | 16th April 2024China has been running a ‘crawling peg’ exchange rate regime, similar to the one Australia had between January 1976 and December 1983, since 2015. Strictly speaking, a quasi-fixed FX regime like this requires some kind of relationship between a country’s domestic money supply and its FX reserves – although that isn’t really ‘binding’ if the […]
Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 4th April 2024Is #China heading for some kind of financial or #currency crisis? In the short term, no. But over the medium- to longer-term, the possibility of a sharp fall in the value of the #renminbi against other currencies, accompanied by large falls in the values of other Chinese assets, can’t be ruled out. China hasn’t been […]