‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, speaker, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Global Economy

Australia may be an island continent, but it is no more immune to global economic influences than are other countries which share physical borders with their nearest neighbours. Australia is very much exposed to global swings in commodity prices, and to fluctuations in major advanced economies and (increasingly) to business cycles in key emerging economies such as China. Australia’s financial markets are increasingly integrated with the their global counterparts. And Australian economic policy-makers cannot ignore changes in monetary, fiscal and other economic policy settings in the world’s major economies. Hence, an awareness of trends in the global economy is an essential element of understanding Australian economic conditions.

The World Today – a Global Macro-economic Perspective

The Global Economy | 15th September 2016

Presentation To HL Morrison & Co Infrastructure Conference 2016, Millbrook Resort, Queenstown, New Zealand – 15th September 2016

The New World of Economic Disruptors – from Brexit to Trump

The Global Economy | 16th August 2016

Presentation to First Samuel Limited’s annual Client Forum, Melbourne, 16th August 2016

Is the World Economy Facing ‘Secular Stagnation’?

The Global Economy | 16th June 2014

Paper presented to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists (ICCBE), Oslo, Norway, 16th June 2014

Germany’s economic and political generals are fighting the wrong war

Publications, The Global Economy | 25th November 2011

Op-ed article published in the Melbourne Age and Sydney Morning Herald newspapers, 25th November 2011

Europeans and Americans don’t run the world economy any more, and shouldn’t automatically run the IMF

Publications, The Global Economy | 24th May 2011

Op-ed article published in the Melbourne Age and Sydney Morning Herald newspapers, 24th May 2011

Is the US Dollar in Danger of Losing its Reserve Currency Status?

The Global Economy | 3rd July 2009

Presentation to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists (ICCBE) in Munich, Germany, 3rd July 2009

The difference between a recession and a depression

The Global Economy | 23rd November 2008

An essay which began as an answer to a question put to me by my then boss, “what’s the difference between a recession and a depression”, during the darkest period of the Global Financial Crisis, and which was subsequently picked up by The Economist.

The Emergence of Oil Producers as Net International Creditors – Possible Implications for the Global Financial System.

The Global Economy | 22nd June 2006

Paper presented to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists (ICCBE), Milan, Italy, 22nd June 2006


What Others Say

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“An outstanding presentation that was lucid, logical and blended hard facts with humour. And Saul comfortably communicated to meet the wide range of ages, occupations and knowledge of our guests”
Anthony Starkins, Executive Director, First Samuel Ltd, August 2016



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