The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
Distribution of GST Revenue: the Worst Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century to date.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 4th February 2024Saul Eslake: An essay about the consequences of the Morrison Government’s decision (supported by the then Labor Opposition and continued, indeed extended, by the current Albanese Labor Government) to change the way in which the revenue from the GST is carved up among Australia’s states and territories, at the behest of Australia’s richest state, Western Australia.
Alternatives to interest rates
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 29th January 2024Saul Eslake: Some weeks ago, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC)’s Fiona Blackwood asked me to respond to a series of questions from listeners and viewers about possible alternatives to raising interestr ates as a way of tackling inflation. These were all very good questions, which deserved serious and thoughtful answers – which is what I hope I have provided here …
‘Stage 3’ tax cuts
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 25th January 2024Saul Eslake talks to ABC Radio Central Victoria’s Fiona Parker about the Government’s changes to the ‘Stage 3’ tax cuts originally legislated by the former Morrison Government, and what they might mean for different groups of taxpayers, and for inflation and interest rates.
The proposed changes to the “stage 3 tax cuts”
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 24th January 2024Saul Eslake talks to the Seven Network’s “Sunrise” hosts Natalie Barr and Matt Shervington on 24 Jan 2024 about the Government’s proposed changes to the “stage 3 tax cuts” originally legislated by the Morrison Government back in 2019, and which the current government had previously promised to “deliver in full”.
Don’t count your chickens when it comes to an RBA rate cut
Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 23rd January 2024Saul Eslake talks to Ausbiz’ Danielle Ecuyer about the economic costs and benefits of immigration, the outlook for inflation and unemployment, and the prospects of RBA interest rate cuts in 2024.
Cost of Living and Housing Pressure
Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 22nd January 2024Saul Eslake talks to 4BC’s Bill McDonald about possible options for ‘cost of living’ relief, the tax treatment of property investors, and why he gave Treasurer Jim Chalmers a ‘7 out of 10’ rating in a poll of economists conducted by the Australian Financial Review.
Stage 3 Tax Cuts 2024
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 15th January 2024Saul Eslake talks to 4BC’s Bill McDonald about the ‘stage 3’ tax cuts – originally legislated by the former Morrison Government, but which the Albanese Government has pledged to deliver in full come 1st July – and the impact they might have on the Reserve Bank’s thinking about interest rates.
The RBA is following a slightly different path from its peers
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 11th January 2024The Reserve Bank of Australia has come in for criticism for some quarters for its most recent rate hike (on 7th November). Although most RBA-watchers, me included, think that there won’t be any more rate hikes next year, the Minutes of the 5th December RBA Board meeting show that another hike was a live option […]